AR-Sieve-based Prediction Interval for Sustainable Development Index

Year: 2016       Vol.: 65       No.: 1      

Authors: Jachelle Anne Dimapilis

Abstract:

We propose a procedure for monitoring progress of sustainable development measured by indices. AR-sieve-based nonparametric prediction interval is constructed to determine whether the movement of the indices is significant or not. Points outside the interval are considered significant and imply positive or negative movement of the indices. This method is used in the construction of prediction interval for sustainable development index for the Philippine. The interval is indeed capable of detecting significant movements that can be explained by policies and other factors.

Keywords: sustainable development index, AR-sieve bootstrap, nonparametric prediction interval

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